From a peak reached inwards the early on 1990s, police line reported crimes rates inwards Canada guide keep been on a downward trend. This is also the example for homicide rates, which guide keep been on a downward tendency nationally since the early on 1980s. There is of course of didactics variation from twelvemonth to twelvemonth inwards homicide rates hence some type of regression smoothing physical care for is helpful inwards establishing what the longer-term trends over fourth dimension are. What speedily emerges from an exam of long-term trends is that Thunder Bay followed national trends inwards homicide rates until the early on 21st century but that since as well as then in that place has been a substantial divergence. It is non a “northern Ontario” affair because the Greater Sudbury CMA tracks provincial as well as national homicide rates quite closely.
Figure 1 presents LOWESS Smoothed homicide rates for Canada as well as major regions from 1981 to 2015.
LOWESS is a especially useful smoothing tool because it helps bargain amongst “outliers” – that is extreme observations that tin dismiss oft distort averages taken over time. The information beginning is from Statistics Canada (
Table 2530004 - Homicide survey, release as well as rates (per 100,000 population) of homicide victims, past times census metropolitan surface area (CMA), annually). Canada equally a whole has seen a steady reject inwards homicide rates going from smoothed values of 2.74 per 100,000 inwards 1981 to 1.51 past times 2015 – a drib of 45 percent. This reject is a characteristic of the West, Ontario, Quebec as well as Atlantic Canada though Atlantic Canada sees a sight upturn afterwards 2006. In price of regional rankings, homicide rates are forthwith the highest inwards the West, followed past times Atlantic Canada, as well as then Ontario as well as finally Quebec. 
Figure ii presents the homicide rates for major western Canadian CMAs. Here in that place is some deviation from national trends. Regina drops dramatically from the early on 1980s, as well as then rises from the mid 1990s to close 2005 as well as has since declined. Saskatoon follows a like pattern. Calgary as well as Victoria guide keep seen declines over time, amongst Edmonton less so. Winnipeg declined inwards the early on 1990s but as well as then began to increase though the in conclusion few years guide keep witnessed moderation. Vancouver appears to guide keep had the steepest as well as most consistent reject going from a smoothed value of 4.02 inwards 1981 to 1.60 inwards 2015 – a drib of threescore percent.
Moving eastward, nosotros come upwardly to Ontario as well as Quebec inwards Figures 3 as well as 4. All Ontario CMAs relieve ane at introduce guide keep smoothed homicide rates below ii per 100,000 – the exception beingness Thunder Bay. As for Quebec, the rates all present a downward tendency since the early on 1980s though Trois-Rivieres sees a slight rebound afterwards 2005. Smoothed homicide rates inwards all of these major Quebec CMAs inwards 2015 were below 1.5 per 100,000. 
Finally, Figure five plots the smoothed profiles for 3 Atlantic Canadian CMAs (Moncton did non guide keep a serial going dorsum to 1981) as well as homicide rates are past times 2015 at close ii per 100,000 or lower. However, Saint John, New Brunswick has seen a surge since 2003 somewhat like to what has occurred amongst Thunder Bay’s tendency though non of the same magnitude. Meanwhile, Halifax has been stable at only over ii for most of the catamenia since the early on 1990s spell St. John’s Newfoundland has also stayed about stable at close 1 homicide per 100,000 of population. 
Thunder Bay’s homicide charge per unit of measurement has e'er been inwards a higher house the average for major Ontario CMAs but it tracks downward amongst the others until the early on 21st century when it begins to rise. Indeed, the smoothed serial (Figure 3) shows a steady increase from 2.06 homicides per 100,000 inwards 2002 to 5.44 inwards 2015 – an increase of 164 per centum since 2002. Thunder Bay’s homicide rates are higher than they were inwards the early on 1980s. Sudbury - also inwards northern Ontario- as well as Windsor, used to guide keep homicide rates quite closed to Thunder Bay inwards the early on 1990s but guide keep dropped substantially as well as past times 2015 guide keep smoothed values of close 1.0 per 100,000.
If you lot demand to a greater extent than show of Thunder Bay’s “exceptionalism” when it comes to homicide rates, accept a expect at the adjacent 3 charts (Figure 6-8) which compare Thunder Bay as well as Sudbury smoothed profiles get-go to national as well as provincial profiles (Figure 6), as well as then to western Canadian cities (Figure 7) - which guide keep traditionally had higher homicide rates –and as well as then to some Quebec as well as Atlantic Canadian cities of comparable size (Figure 8).
As the assorted figures show, Thunder Bay’s rising homicide charge per unit of measurement is indeed out of sync amongst pretty much every other metropolis inwards the country. Even inwards the example of western Canadian CMAs, Thunder Bay’s smoothed homicide charge per unit of measurement since 2002 has surpassed the rates for Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina as well as Winnipeg. It is non a “northern Ontario thing” because fifty-fifty homicide rates inwards Greater Sudbury guide keep continued to tendency down.
When it comes to homicide rates, it is pretty obvious that Thunder Bay has a problem. While homicide rates inwards Thunder Bay guide keep oft been higher than other Ontario cities as well as indeed to a greater extent than closely resembled those of western Canada in that place is forthwith a substantial deviation inwards tendency fifty-fifty from western Canadian cities. The deviation from national as well as provincial trends starts only afterwards the twelvemonth 2000. The fifty-fifty bigger resultant is just why in that place is this deviation as well as what tin dismiss as well as should live on done to address it.
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